SALIC owns 16.32% of Almarai and has two board seats. This piece uses public information only.
The short version
Most Saudi investors see Almarai as the safe food stock. It has the biggest brands, its own cold chain and a near-monopoly feel in fresh dairy. That picture is true. It is also why the stock has done so little.
Revenue grew 5.9% a year from 2017 to 2025. Net income grew 1.5% a year. Over those eight years sales rose 58% and profit rose 13%. The gap went into margin. EBIT margin fell from 18.5% in 2017 to 13.9% in 2025.
The company is now in its third big spending cycle. PP&E capex ran at about 20% of sales in 2025. Net debt is SAR 13.5bn, or 2.72x EBITDA. That is above the 2.5x management calls optimal. Poultry assets doubled in four years. They earn only 4.4%, about half the cost of capital.
The bull case is simple. Capex falls from about 20% of sales to 7-8% after 2028. Free cash flow turns strongly positive. A SAR 42 share at 17x earnings then becomes a cash machine. The new 2031 plan targets 10% net income growth a year.
The bear case is just as simple. Almarai has set big targets before and missed most of them. It promised to double sales by 2020 and grew them 22%. Its profit also leans on items few investors check. Government grants are about 10% of net income. Capitalised interest is about a third of gross interest.
Key numbers (29 Oct 2026 close, SAR 41.86)
Market cap SAR 41.9bn. EV about SAR 55bn.
Trailing P/E about 17x. Dividend yield 2.7%.
9M-26 revenue +10%, net income -0.3%.
Model value per share: Base SAR 44.6, Upside 63.0, Downside 19.1. Probability-weighted SAR 42.8, about 2% above the price.
My view: fairly priced, with a wide range. The edge is not in the brand story. It sits in three questions. When does capex really fall? Does poultry earn its cost of capital? How much profit survives a cut in grants?
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